- If they keep everything
- 2042
- If they sell the Melbourne apartment and the Manchester flat in 2035, proceeds to the loans
- 2035
With $862k less wealth in 2057, in today's money.
Keeping everything, the goal arrives in 2042: the year the first retirement fund unlocks. Selling, it arrives in 2035, 7 years before either retirement fund unlocks.
The household, and how the two futures were compared
The household
Lilly 44 and William 42, living in Australia. 4 rental properties in 3 countries: Melbourne, Brisbane, Manchester and Dubai. 1 already sold, in Hobart. Shares in 2 currencies. 2 retirement funds, locked until 2042 and 2044. Combined debt $3.0M. Target: $150k a year of passive income, in today's money, and a net worth of $6.5M.
2 futures
| Future | Goal year | Wealth in 2057, today's money |
|---|
| If they keep everything | 2042 | the baseline |
|---|
| If they sell the Melbourne apartment and the Manchester flat in 2035, proceeds to the loans | 2035 | $862k less |
|---|
The decision
The Melbourne apartment carries their largest loan. Whether to sell it, and what else to sell, is not a question on its own. It depends on what the household is optimising for, and the search runs every path against each of these:
- Reach the passive income goal soonestThe first year income after tax covers the target, and keeps covering it.
- Reach the net worth target firstGrowing the balance sheet before converting it into income.
- The most cashflow while net worth still growsIncome that rises with inflation year after year, not a one off spike.
- The largest legacy for the childrenWhat is left at the end of the plan, after every tax and every cost.
Under the Bear view the goal arrives in 2044 if they keep everything and 2035 if they sell, a gap of 9 years.
Selling the Manchester flat alone gets there in 2036.
On these assumptions, no pair of sales in any years brings the goal earlier than 2035.
Value growth 4.5%, rent growth 3.0%, loan rate 6.24%, inflation 3.0%, drawdown rule 4%, as at July 2026.
Passive income after tax against the target, the Combined Assets rule, retirement funds counted from their access year.
You can test any future you can think of. The search runs the ones you didn't think of, and shows you every path it tried.
Worked on the sample household's own figures and assumptions. An estimate, not advice; a licensed professional is the person to decide with.